Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Full Birds

With the huge stock market swings we've seen lately you would think the satellite bandwidth folks (a pretty volatile group in their own right) would be in deep trouble. Not the case......the satellite bandwidth business is booming this year compared to many industries - why?...well, it isn't due to redundant backup demand (although that business doesn't hurt) or millions of folks begging for high speed internet in rural parts of the U.S. (which they aren't), rather it's due more than anything, to the surge in HDTV broadcasting. Every time I turn on the TV a new HDTV station pops up or the "locals" are switched over to HDTV broadcasting. I love it except when I see what it's doing to the cost of bandwidth for data transmission.

The major players, SES Americom and Intelsat, are booked up to very high occupancy rates right now and demand continues to exceed capacity. Even with new satellites on the drawing boards and under construction, the shortfall of bandwidth is alarming right now. HDTV signals require 4-5 times as much bandwidth for transmission as standard definition signals, even with sophisticated MPEG-4 encoding. In addition, our Internet communications bandwidth requirements continue to grow at about 50% annually. Staggering growth in such a turbulent market isn't it?

The success of HDTV well exceeds everyone's projections - the good news is really nice programming coming my way - the bad news, I rely on internet, not TV, to earn a living! I've seen bandwidth costs increase by 15% or more during the last 12 months. Additionally, Service Providers have been forced to throttle, employ access limitations (FAP) and cancel accounts that stress the network too much. It is a classic example of "needs in conflict" between satellite owners & ISP's, who want to maximize revenue - and consumers and entertainment producers, who want to use the internet in ways it might not be ready for....the next entertainment medium. Capacity over satellite will always be more expensive and limited than terrestrial counterparts; however, the growth of internet usage in general has accelerated so fast that something is bound to give....sooner or later.

There is a great deal of brainpower assaulting this shortfall of bandwidth that will become even more apparent in the next two years.......I hope brainpower wins the race on this one...slow internet is no fun!